“The 0–15-second retention drop is the strongest single predictor of overall performance.” — what the data says

What the check does

From video retention curve, retention_15s_pct. Pearson correlation with total views and weighted_ctr_post_day_3. Agrees if r ≥0.7. Requires retention curve data (Round 4).

The reading

Not testable yet — the data it needs hasn't been wired up here. Awaiting Round 4 retention curve ingestion.

How the verdict has moved

First checked Sep 11, 2026; the verdict has not moved since.

Where the belief comes from

Hook-economy folklore.

Checked against

Every figure on this page is checked against @theartharrison’s tracked data, through Oct 22, 2026. The tally above reads 5 pooled public channels’ files.

Keep reading

The rest of the record

This belief sits in a ledger of fifty, each one re-checked every day. These surfaces carry the rest of it.

Back to the belief ledger

Every belief on record, what changed in the last 90 days, and the verdict words explained.

How the record is made

The path a number takes from YouTube to this page, every condition attached to it, and what the projections have been worth.

Benchmarks

What channels in the shared pool actually run at, and how a video's views build day by day.