“Performance trajectory of the first 10 videos predicts month-12 channel state.”
disagrees
the data runs the other way here
Held 42 days · Never changed on recorddisagrees on 4 of 5 pooled public channels
What the check does
Across the shared pool. The belief never fixed a definition of "predicts", so this one is stated plainly: the TRAJECTORY is the slope of first-week views across a channel's first ten videos (rising, flat or falling), and the month-12 STATE is that channel's total views one year after its first upload. Pearson correlation across channels; agrees at r >= 0.5, disagrees at r <= -0.5. A channel needs ten videos with a full first week and a shared day on or after its own first anniversary; those short of either are counted in the evidence rather than filled in.
The reading
Checked on 2 channels ·
How the verdict has moved
First checked Sep 11, 2026; the verdict has not moved since.
Where the belief comes from
Long-arc folklore.
Checked against
Keep reading
The rest of the record
This belief sits in a ledger of fifty, each one re-checked every day. These surfaces carry the rest of it.